Data & ProbabilityThreat Analysis
The 99% Test That's Usually Wrong
With a rare condition, most positive results can be false alarms
A test that's right 99% of the time says you have a rare condition. How worried should you actually be?
You'll find out
- Why a great test can mostly be wrong
- How many positives are really real
- Why doctors test you twice
Why it matters
Medical tests and airport scanners both fall into this trap, and one simple trick gets you out of it.
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